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Analysing the World Cups new format

Explained: The two new historic Champions League qualification places, which clubs could benefit and why this is happening

On Monday afternoon, the European Club Association was presented with the details of a new proposal for a qualification model for theChampions League.

There will be four new places up for grabs from the 2024-25 season.

The ECA has now told UEFA, European footballs governing body, how it wants them to be distributed.

Of those places, two will go to teams with the best historical performance who finished outside the Champions League spots in their domestic league the previous season, another to the fifth best-performing league in Europe, and one to the Champions pathway in qualification.

However, it is not as simple as it might seem on paper.

The Athletichas taken a look at the ECA plan, the Champions League reforms and how they would have impacted the tournament if applied in recent seasons.

Wait. What exactly is the new format for the Champions League?

The Champions League will use the so-called Swiss model from the 2024-25 season.

The present group-phase system where 32 clubs are drawn in eight groups of four will go out of the window. Instead, all qualifying clubs will be together in one giant table for the new-look group phase.

However, these teams will not play all the other sides. Instead, they will be guaranteed 10 matches each at that stage. That is, of course, four more than the current six that each team plays in the group stage.

The same number of teams 16 will go through to the first knockout round.

Crucially, though, this shake-up will see 36 teams reach the competition proper, compared to the 32 who currently play in the Champions League each season.

This is where the big decision comes into play how, exactly, those four places are dished out.

So how are UEFA going to fill the four extra places?

One of the four spots is an extra place for the fifth best-performing league in Europe.

That would currently be Frances Ligue 1, although there is a suggestion it would instead go to the side outside the current qualification places in Portugal as Benfica and Sporting Lisbon are both performing well in Europe this season, reaching the Champions Leagues quarter-finals and last-16 respectively.

The other, more traditionally distributed place, will go to an extra team qualifying from the Champions pathway of the pre-group phase play-offs.

The two most controversial additional spots have often been referred to as ones for historic performance. This has been seen as a way to get underperforming but commercially-significant teams like, for example,Manchester United, currently sixth in thePremier League, orArsenal, who missed out on European football entirely this season into the competition every year.

The agreement the ECA has come to will see teams who have not qualified for the Champions League by normal means but rank highest in the coefficients reach the competition, as anticipated. But they will need to have finished in the first spot outside their domestic divisions Champions League places or in the next one after that if the team above them have also qualified via this historic route.

This could mean one or two extra qualifications from teams who are historically significant and have performed well over the last five years the period in which the coefficients are calculated but are not able to leapfrog teams above them who do not qualify this way.

So, for example, if Manchester United finish fifth in the Premier League, and are the highest-ranked team in terms of coefficients who did not qualify through traditional means, they would get into the Champions League.

If they finished sixth, behind, say,Brighton, who have a poor or non-existent European record, they would not be able to leapfrog them and it would go to the next ranked team elsewhere in Europe.

But there is scope for United qualifying if they finish sixth behind Arsenal, who, like them, have a strong coefficient based on their historical performances.

Who would have qualified in the extra slots in each of the last five seasons?

The qualifiers over the last five years based on their historical performance and league position

Whose league position would have kept them out in recent seasons?

Last season, Arsenal were 10th in the coefficient rankings and had the highest UEFA coefficient of any team who did not qualify for the Champions League but finished eighth in Premier League, so would not take one of those historical spots.

Ditto Roma, who were the next highest at 13th, but finished sixth in Serie A.

Tottenhamalso ranked high in the UEFA coefficients 15th but their seventh-place finish would not have given them a spot. Nor would it in 2019-20, when they were 14th in the coefficients but finished sixth domestically.

The presence ofLeicester CityandWest Ham Unitedover the last two seasons would have, essentially, made it impossible for a team finishing sixth in the Premier League to qualify for this competition through the historical placings.

In 2018-19,Sevillafinished sixth inLa Ligabehind Getafe on head to head record after they both earned 59 points. Both went into the 2019-20 Europa League and Sevilla ended up winning it. However, one extra domestic point for Sevilla that season would have seen them qualify for the Champions League from fifth place, under the coming system, as they had ranked seventh in the UEFA coefficients.

So why will this new format appeal to UEFA?

You only have to look at the seasons between 2017-18 and 2019-20 to understand why UEFA would want this change.

Commercially, the Champions League having two extra qualifiers from the Premier League would be a big boost.

This would especially be the case if it were the likes of United or Arsenal, teams who have performed badly at times in the last half-decade but still bring plenty of value in sponsorship and broadcasting terms to competition organisers.

Intriguingly, however, separate sources countered that the coefficient places may yet be protected by UEFA, as the increased likelihood of an extra English team or two in the competition is perceived to add value when selling broadcast rights and seeking sponsorship.

A well-placed source toldThe Athletic: These places are important to big clubs and also UEFA. This is the thing being missed. Those spots are a significant value driver to a new Champions League. The revenues from UEFA club competitions when they grow, the distribution to European football as a whole grows significantly.

UEFAs desire to grow the value of the Champions League, which these four spots are very important for, is unabated.

Having more historically-strong clubs in the Champions League could benefit UEFA in terms of broadcast-rights revenue (Photo: Alex Gottschalk/DeFodi Images via Getty Images)

And how could all this help stimulate the club game?

Imagine if, say,Juventus, Manchester United and Atletico Madrid are all struggling to finish in the top four of their respective leagues in a single season. Currently, they are eighth, ninth and 10th in the UEFA coefficients respectively. In this hypothetical scenario, all three sides are fifth in their leagues, one place outside the usual Champions League qualifying spots.

United fans might prefer to keep an eye on Juventus final game of the season against, say, Sassuolo rather than West Hams one withNorwich City, as they could be more likely to finish fifth and then qualify through this new route than by doing it the old way in finishing fourth.

La Liga could then receive a boost in terms of UK viewership if British viewers tune in to Atleticos hypothetical shock loss to Getafe.

This example would see United into the Champions League, along with Juventus, as the two highest ranking sides in UEFAs coefficient who didnt qualify through the traditional means.

Its not guaranteed. This is the ECA the clubs lobbying body rather than UEFA. That should not be much of an issue, though, as this is the crucial step towards final approval.

UEFAs deputy general secretary Giorgio Marchetti explained all this to Europes top sides in a hotel in central Vienna today. It is expected to be discussed by UEFA in April before it gives the plan the green light in May.

(Photos: Getty Images; graphic: Tom Slator)

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Adam Craftoncovers football for The Athletic. He previously wrote for the Daily Mail. In 2018, he was named the Young Sports Writer of the Year by the Sports Journalist Association. His debut book,From Guernica to Guardiola, charting the influence of Spaniards in English football, was published by Simon & Schuster in 2018. He is based in London.